2012 SEC Returning Offensive Firepower

Let's take a look at the returning offensive statistics for SEC Offenses to see who will have the best chance to pick up where they left off and who will be re-tooling the most in 2012.

Passing	RPY	TPY	% Returning
Alabama	2797	2797	100.00%
Arkansas	3909	3909	100.00%
Georgia	3423	3423	100.00%
Ole Miss	1819	1819	100.00%
Kentucky	1612	1627	99.08%
Missouri	2869	3017	95.09%
Tennessee	2592	2911	89.04%
Vandy	1602	2270	70.57%
South Carolina	1515	2359	64.22%
Miss State	1033	2364	43.70%
Auburn	838	2022	41.44%
Florida	370	2414	15.33%
LSU	92	2135	4.31%
Texas A&M	40	3784	1.06%

 

*RPY= Passing Yards from 2011 for players returning in 2012.

*TPY= 2011 total passing yards

Last year 6 of 12 teams returned 100% of their passing yardage. This year 4 of 14 return 100% but the QB position feels deeper in the SEC this year over last year. Aaron Murray (Georgia), Tyler Wilson (Arkansas), Tyler Bray (Tennessee), Jordan Rodgers (Vandy), James Franklin (Missouri), Connor Shaw (South Carolina) and AJ McCarron (Bama) are the names that most will know. Don't let Ole Miss and Kentucky fool you. They return a ton of their QB play from last year but in 2011 their play at that position was awful. 

 

Rushing	RRY	TRY	% Returning
Vandy	2060	2138	96.35%
Georgia	2181	2296	94.99%
Missouri	2916	3165	92.13%
LSU	2594	2836	91.47%
South Carolina	2239	2497	89.67%
Kentucky	1327	1490	89.06%
Arkansas	1268	1786	71.00%
Ole Miss	905	1550	58.39%
Texas A&M	1238	2589	47.82%
Auburn	1066	2370	44.98%
Alabama	1114	2788	39.96%
Tennessee	410	1081	37.93%
Florida	549	1859	29.53%
Miss State	670	2279	29.40%

* RRY= Rushing Yards from 2011 for players returning in 2012

* TRY= 2011 Total Rushing Yards

Last season there were only two SEC teams that returned less than 50% of their rushing yardage. One of those turned out to have a fantastic year rushing the football (LSU) and the other couldn't buy a yard (Kentucky). This year 8 of 14 teams return over 50% of their yards and 7 of 14 return over 71%. LSU is in the best shape in terms of combination of talent and yardage. The teams to watch here are Florida and Mississippi State. Florida has really struggled on the ground in the last couple of years and now they have to go after it without Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey. For Miss State, everything they do is based off the run and they return less than 30% of their production from last year. Another team to watch is Tennessee. They struggled mightily to run the football (finishing last in the SEC) and this year they lose their leading rusher. Can Tennessee's OL take the next step this year?

 

Receiving	RRY	TRY	% Returning
Auburn	1821	2022	90.06%
Ole Miss	1635	1819	89.88%
Vandy	2011	2270	88.59%
Tennessee	2500	2911	85.88%
Miss State	1966	2364	83.16%
Georgia	2533	3423	74.00%
Texas A&M	2717	3784	71.80%
Kentucky	1086	1627	66.75%
Florida	1597	2414	66.16%
South Carolina	1549	2359	65.66%
Missouri	1804	3017	59.79%
LSU	1030	2135	48.24%
Arkansas	1861	3909	47.61%
Alabama	996	2797	35.61%

*RRY= Receiving yards from 2011 for players returning in 2012

*TRY= Total Receiving Yards from 2011

Six of the top ten leaders in receiving yards return for 2012. Da'Rick Rogers (Tennessee) is the leader followed by Jordan Matthews (Vandy), Tavarres King (UGA), Malcolm Mitchell (UGA) and Emory Blake (Auburn). A couple of teams to watch here are Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Texas A&M. They return a lot of production at this position but can they find a QB who can consistently get the ball to their receivers? Georgia, Tennessee and Vandy look the best off at this position because they return their starting QBs and are all top 6 in terms of receiving yardage returning. Those three teams should be able to quickly pick up where they left off last year with their passing games if their offensive lines cooperate.

 

RETURNING OFFENSIVE FIREPOWER RANKING:

I took into account not only the percentage of production returning for the three metrics above but I also took into account how much total yardage was returning at each position and how that ranked in the conference. This ranking shows who has the most production returning from last year. Does that mean they will be the best? Not necessarily. You also have to factor in new additions, players returning from injury, complementary positions (ex: if a teams OL play isn't as good as last year then they will have a tough time duplicating the same statistics) and guys that will step up possibly be better than the player that they replace as well as the coaching staffs and how well they will utilize the players based on their abilities. One thing to note is that LSU ranked 9th last year and Bama ranked 10th. Their superior talent, coaching and defense helped them overcome their returning offensive numbers. Last year, Auburn and Kentucky ranked dead last and they played like it. Here is the ranking (this year I am also including a point value so you can see how close the teams are from one to the next):

 

#1 Georgia- 73 points

#2 Vanderbilt- 61 points

#3 Missouri- 58 points

#4 Arkansas- 55 points

#5 Ole Miss- 53 points

#6 Kentucky- 46 points

#7 Tennessee- 45 points

#8 South Carolina- 43 points

#9 Auburn- 40 points

#10T Alabama- 37 points

#10T Texas A&M- 37 points

#12 Mississippi State- 34 points

#13 LSU- 33 points

#14 Florida- 21 points