Ohio State +2
This may be the biggest “square” pick of the year, but I just can’t see why Ohio State is an underdog to a very average Wisconsin team. I always stop and take an extra hard look at a game when a top 10 team is an underdog, especially to an unranked team. Does someone know something I don’t know?
This game just looks too obvious. This is a great situational spot for the Buckeyes coming off the bye week. Urban Meyer is 18-3 ATS in his career as a head coach following a week off. And talk about a motivational edge, Wisconsin has already clinched the division and will be playing in the Big 10 Championship game. What have they got to play for? Ohio State on the other hand can’t go bowling this year, so they are shooting for an undefeated season as their reward.
But the biggest reason I am backing Ohio State this week is that the Buckeyes should have a significant edge at quarterback. Braxton Miller is a big-play threat with plenty of experience. Wisconsin is basically down to their third-string QB. Fifth-year senior Curt Phillips got his first career start last week against Indiana and threw the ball 7 times. In fact, Wisconsin ran 71 plays last week against Indiana and 64 of them were rushing plays. They won’t have that same luxury against the Buckeyes. Phillips will need to make plays for the Badgers to win, and with 19 career passes in five years, he has not proven he can.
At the end of September Wisconsin was 3-2 with close wins over Northern Iowa, Utah State (a game they should have lost) and UTEP. Since that time they have beaten Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota and Indiana. Since when does beating four of the worst teams in the conference all of a sudden make you a good team? Wisconsin has played three BCS teams with a pulse this year and they have lost to all three of them. I believe Ohio State will make it four
Ohio State 31 Wisconsin 24
Make sure to check out The Saturday Edge website and follow them on Twitter @SaturdayEdge. It's a great site where college football handicapping enthusiasts can exchange useful betting strategies, tips, ideas and information. They have great football analysis and are also a great place to go if you want to read up on betting or get some advice. You can also sign up for their newsletter at their site. So far they have hit on their "best bet" predictions for Oregon State/Wisconsin, Nebraska/Southern Miss, Colorado St/Utah St, Colorado/UCLA, Michigan/Purdue and Notre Dame/Pitt.
@CFBZ surprised u missed UW being 10-0 in the month of November since 2005... Home field advantage huge in this series
@MTBadgers not my pick. I just host it. Although, I would tend to agree with it based on on-field play this year.