SaturdayEdge.com's Best Bet for Week Six

Michigan – Purdue U 59

I’ve seen all four Michigan games this season and I’ll assume that HC Brady Hoke knows what he is doing in trying to turn Denard Robinson into a pocket passer, but I’ll admit I am not seeing it. Robinson definitely does not look comfortable in the pocket and his passing numbers have suffered. His pass efficiency is down, his completion percentage is down and his TD:int ratio is a troublesome 6 TDs vs 10 ints.

In turn Michigan’s offensive numbers are down across the board. Despite playing two really bad defenses, Michigan is only averaging 28.50 ppg, a number which is inflated by a 63 point outburst against UMASS. This is down nearly 5 points from last years 33.30 ppg.

Purdue on the other hand is averaging 40.67 ppg vs FBS competition. However, other than playing Notre Dame, who held them to 17 points, the Boilermakers have been padding their offensive stats against cupcakes.

When I cap totals I look at about a dozen correlations that contribute to scoring on the offensive side of the ball, and prevent scoring on the defensive side, and despite both these teams having inflated stats via playing some weak OOC foes, they are still struggling in a lot of categories.

Purdue has a solid DL and I look for them to continue to slow down Robinson in the running game and force him out of his comfort zone, thus making him pass the football more than he wants to. This being the Big 10 opener for both teams I look for a solid effort from each defense.

Michigan 30 Purdue  27

 

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