Line: Colorado State +13
I'm going to delve into the non-BCS conferences this week and select a play that I believe is a very poor situational spot for Utah State. Two weeks ago we all watched Utah State upset BCS conference member Utah, and last week we saw them nearly upset Wisconsin in Madison.
In the meantime, Colorado State has spent the last two weeks getting beat by FCS school North Dakota State 22-7 at home and last week they lost to San Jose State 40-20 on the road. And their opening week win over Colorado doesn’t look nearly as good now as it did back then.
Based on the evidence from what we have seen so far, Utah State is clearly a better team than Colorado State. Well maybe, but I have serious questions when a team goes from a 16 point underdog to a 13 point favorite, especially when both of these teams are almost identical in talent and experience.
For me the real value in this game lies in a bad situational spot for Utah State called a “come from ahead loss.” The premise of the “come from ahead loss” is a team that has just experienced a loss in a game where they allowed their opponent to come from behind late in the game, and then they go on the road the next week as favorites. In this case double digit favorites.
Last week Utah State had a 14-3 halftime lead against Wisconsin. Then they allowed Wisconsin to come from behind and take a 16-14 lead. Despite blowing an eleven point halftime lead, Utah State was still in a position to win the game and they missed what would have been the game winning FG.
I will fade Utah State in this game in what is a bad situational spot for them, on the road for the second week in a row, against a team that is on the same talent and experience level as they are.
Utah State 31 Colorado State 24
Make sure to check out The Saturday Edge website and follow them on Twitter @SaturdayEdge. It's a great site where college football handicapping enthusiasts can exchange useful betting strategies, tips, ideas and information. They have great football analysis and are also a great place to go if you want to read up on betting or get some advice. You can also sign up for their newsletter at their site. So far they have hit on their "best bet" predictions for Oregon State/Wisconsin and Nebraska/Southern Miss.