There was a little bit of wackiness last week in the SEC with WKU/Kentucky and Auburn/ULM but I still managed to have a decent week. Straight up I went 10-2 missing on Florida/Tennessee and WKU/UK. Against the spread I was 7-4 missing on those two games plus Miss St/Troy and Georgia/FAU. After three weeks I'm 31-5 straight up and 19-10 against the spread.
Saturday, Sept 22nd
Florida is a 24 point favorite. This is an interesting game because we have a team in Florida that is coming off of a huge win and we have a team in Kentucky that is coming off of a horrible loss. It has all the makings of a classic letdown game...but it's being played at Florida. There is no doubt in my mind that Florida wins this game and they could win by a boatload but I think it will be a bit tighter. So far this year, Florida's margin of victory is just 11 points so expect Florida to win but not to cover.
Florida 31 Kentucky 14
Ole Miss is a 19 point favorite. The Rebels two wins this year have come against UTEP by 18 and Central Arkansas by 22. On the flip side, the Green Wave have lost to Rutgers by 12 and lost at Tulsa by 35. Ole Miss is clearly winning this game, the question is by how much.
Ole Miss 35 Tulane 17
South Carolina is a 10 point favorite. This has all the makings of a great game. It looks like both starting QBs are a go this week but if they get banged up both teams now have a back-up with some experience. South Carolina should be able to wear down the Tigers like Georgia did and pound them with Marcus Lattimore in the second half.
South Carolina 24 Missouri 17
Alabama is a 49.5 point favorite. Alabama's margin of victory so far is 38 points per game. Sure they rolled up 52 points against Arkansas last week but I don't think they will be quite as focused on beating the stuffing out of the Owls as they were the Razorbacks. Tide rolls, but not by 50. The big question is can they get three straight shut-outs?
Alabama 45 FAU 0
LSU is a 20.5 point favorite. Does anybody give Auburn a chance to win this game? Typically that's when a team like Auburn is at it's most dangerous but this team just doesn't seem like they have it. Against the spread so far Auburn is -10.3 points per game. Take LSU and the points.
LSU 38 Auburn 17
Arkansas is an 8.5 point favorite and I think they are going to take out some frustrations in this game. Tyler Wilson is back and he will want to show Razorback Nation not to give up on this team just yet. Rutgers went to USF last week and came away with a ten point win but they just don't have the horses on offense to keep up with Arkansas on the scoreboard.
Arkansas 31 Rutgers 17
South Carolina St (1-2) at Texas A&M (1-1), 7 PM
South Carolina State beat Georgia State by 27 to open the season. Then they lost by 56 to RichRod and Arizona. A&M rolls.
Texas A&M 49 SC State 10
Mississippi State is a 34 point favorite. I really like Mississippi State but they tend to make games like this closer than they should be (Troy last week and UAB and La Tech last year). Miss State will win, but don't bet on the points.
Mississippi State 38 South Alabama 7
Tennessee is a 32.5 point favorite. The last two weeks, Akron has put up an average of 52 points per game and almost pulled an upset of FIU. The question here is if Tennessee is looking forward to the Georgia game or if they want to go out and kick some butt. So far Tennessee has played under the point spread by over five points per game so I will go that way.
Tennessee 45 Akron 24
Georgia is a 15.5 point favorite. Last year Georgia only won by five points but that game was at Vandy where they traditionally play much tougher. I see this as being similar to the Missouri game. I think Vandy comes out and plays Georgia tough in the first half (as all of Georgia's opponents have this year) but Georgia comes out after half and wins going away.
Georgia 35 Vanderbilt 17