Can we pretend last week didn't happen? Picking straight up games I went 8-0, which actually makes me 25-0 over the last three weeks, but I didn't fare so well against the spread. For the year, I am 45-5 (90%) in straight up picks and 29-19 (60%) against the spread. This week is highlighted by six conference games. Onto the picks...
Georgia State (0-4) at #1 Alabama (4-0)
12:21 PM EST, SEC TV
Line: Bama by 55
This game happened back in 2010 when Georgia State was (arguably) worse and Bama was, well they were still Bama. Bama won that game by 55. So that's the point spread in this one. State is coming off of an OT loss to Jacksonville State and before that they lost to WVU by 34. I'm going to go under the point spread simply because I think Saban will pull back the reigns a bit after Bama gets up by a ton early.
Prediction: Alabama 52 Georgia State 0
#6 Georgia (3-1, 2-0) at Tennessee (3-2, 0-1)
3:30 PM EST, CBS
Line: Georgia by 10.5
This rivalry has turned Georgia's way over the last few years with the Dawgs winning the last three. The last two games have been close contests as Georgia has won by an average of 7.5 points. But those Tennessee teams had a lot more offense. I just don't see the Vols defense stopping this Georgia offense and I don't see the Vols offense all the sudden clicking on all cylinders. The Vols might stick close early but Georgia will pull away at some point and Tennessee simply doesn't have the firepower to stay with them.
Prediction: Georgia 38 Tennessee 21
#24 Ole Miss (3-1, 1-1) at Auburn (3-1, 1-1)
7 PM EST, ESPNU
Line: Ole Miss by 1
I think this is the most intriguing SEC game of the weekend. We should see plenty of points put up and once the dust clears we will get a better idea of where both these two teams stand in the SEC West hierarchy. The more I look at this game, the more I like Auburn but my gut told me Ole Miss earlier this week so I am going to stick with that.
Prediction: Ole Miss 34 Auburn 28
Arkansas (3-2, 0-1) at #18 Florida (3-1, 2-0)
7 PM EST, ESPN2
Line: Florida by 12.5
With both teams penchant for running the football there probably won't be many points scored in this one. I like Florida to win but I don't like them to cover the spread.
Florida 24 Arkansas 17
#10 LSU (4-1, 1-1) at Mississippi State (2-2, 0-1)
7 PM EST, ESPN
Line: LSU by 9.5
LSU is coming off of a hard loss to Georgia in which they couldn't get their running game started despite lighting up the scoreboard. Look for LSU to get on track this game and despite the loss I think the offense gained a lot of confidence in Athens.
Prediction: LSU 35 Mississippi State 17
Missouri (4-0) at Vanderbilt (3-2, 0-2)
7:30 PM EST
Line: Vandy by 2.5
Missouri has looked pretty good so far this season but this is their first real test. Vandy on the other hand has already been tested twice in conference play and they've come up short. Last year Vandy went to Mizzou and won but this Vandy team doesn't look as good as last years squad and Mizzou looks like they might be slightly better.
Prediction: Missouri 24 Vanderbilt 21
Kentucky (1-3, 0-1) at #13 South Carolina (3-1, 1-1)
7:30 PM EST
Line: South Carolina by 21
South Carolina has disappointed so far this year but they only have one loss and still have a chance to have a great season. Can they get back on track without Connor Shaw? Kentucky's defense has looked much improved and I think that gives them a good chance to stay within three TDs of the Gamecocks as long as the offense doesn't put the defense in bad situations. Call me crazy but I'll take Kentucky against the spread.
Prediction: South Carolina 28 Kentucky 10